Refereed Journal Publications  

Abstract: Price volatility is an important factor in the fish value chain influencing the costs, trade, income, and food security. Therefore, analysis of fish price volatility dynamics can provide valuable insights into the impact of aquaculture growth in Bangladesh, a developing country where much of the animal source protein is obtained through fish consumption. In this article, we use both descriptive analysis and time-series econometric modeling to understand the price volatility dynamics of four major aquaculture products at retail level, as well as the efficiency of the markets to adjust to price shocks. We analyze publicly available retail fish prices observations from January 2007 to December 2019. This period is characterized by a rapid growth in aquaculture output as the inland aquaculture sector of Bangladesh shifted away from largely low-intensity farming toward commercialization. Our results indicate Bangladesh is experiencing lower fish price volatility during recent years. Therefore, we argue that rapid growth in aquaculture output in Bangladesh has contributed to lower volatility of fish prices. The article also sheds light on the volatility persistence and finds almost all the markets are inefficiently adjusting to price shock, indicating that there is more room for improving the functioning of fish markets in Bangladesh. 

Abstract: The rapid development of the aquaculture industry has a significant impact on fish price movements along the value chain; especially in Bangladesh where most of the animal source protein consumption is driven by this sector. In this article, we investigate price transmission and market integration in the value chain of the four most consumed aquaculture fish species: silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix), tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), pangasius (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus), and rohu (Labeo rohita). Monthly fish price data were collected from the Bangladesh Department of Agricultural Marketing website from January 2007 to December 2019, a period characterized by rapid emergence of aquaculture and declining capture fisheries. Our analysis shows that for almost all the fish species, the direction of market information is moving from the retail market to the wholesale market. This implies that retail markets are more organized and wholesalers follow the price set by the retailers. In the short run, only rohu market shows bidirectional information flow between wholesale and retail markets indicating no single market has significant control over the price. The study has highlighted the role of aquaculture to increase fish production and potential contribution to fish price stabilization and food security. 

Abstract: Lumber is one of the most essential forest products in the United States. During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, lumber prices almost quadrupled, and fluctuations reached record levels. Although market experts have pointed to various drivers of such high price volatility, no firm conclusions have been drawn yet. Using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) framework, this study assesses the potential drivers of lumber price volatility, with predictors including the Google Trends Web Search Index, housing starts, US lumber production quantity, and VIX index, representing public attention, housing demand, lumber supply, and macroeconomic concerns, respectively. We have found that housing demand is the key driver of lumber price volatility, followed by public attention. It is worth noting that US lumber supply and macroeconomic concerns have played a modest role in explaining lumber price volatility. Also, forecasting lumber price by using the housing demand variable substantially outperforms others. Market participants, including lumber mills, wholesalers, and home builders can get valuable information from the housing market to manage lumber price risk. 

Abstract: The recent growth and development of aquaculture industry in Bangladesh demand a thorough investigation of price volatility spillover pattern among capture fisheries and aquaculture products. Utilizing nationally representative monthly retail price data of the last seventeen years, we identify the evidence of volatility spillover effects among capture fisheries and aquaculture markets. We find three phases of fish price movements: (1) fish prices, in general, were increasing prior to 2013 with higher fluctuations and structural breaks; (2) prices were comparatively stable from 2013 to 2019 for almost all markets with sporadic shocks; (3) increasing trajectory of fish prices are observed during the COVID-19 period. We also find that all the aquaculture products have significant direct or indirect long-run volatility spillover effect to capture fish market. We identify only one aquaculture product with a significant positive own price asymmetric effect indicating negative news increases the price volatility behavior in its own market. Our findings may play a vital role in implementing suitable food security policies and reducing overexploitation of natural resources. Policies promoting fish price stability should prioritize tilapia and pangasius markets, and targeted investments in the aquaculture industry should be made to promote greater stability in the fisheries and aquaculture market.

Working Papers